The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) is a monthly survey of how consumers feel in terms of the economy, personal finances, business conditions and purchasing conditions, conducted by the University of Michigan.
Consumer sentiment is a statistical measure of the overall health of the economy, determined by consumer opinion.
It takes into account people’s feelings about their current financial health, the health of the economy in the short term and the prospects for long-term economic growth and is widely considered a useful economic indicator.
The University of Michigan conducts the survey by phone. It publishes a preliminary report in the middle of the month and a final report at the end of the month.
Because consumer spending accounts for about 68.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the U.S., the MCSI is regarded as one of many important economic indicators, followed by businesses, policymakers, and investment community participants.
According to the University of Michigan, these surveys “have proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the national economy.”
The surveys have demonstrated their ability to accurately anticipate changes in interest rates, unemployment rates, inflation rates, GDP growth, housing, car demand and other key economic measures.
Its peak is usually associated with recession pre-warnings: on confidence years 1987, 2000 and 2007
Access: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
