• About us
    • Who we are
    • Mission
  • Contacts
  • English
    • Português (Portuguese (Portugal))
    • Español (Spanish)
    • Français (French)
  • Login
  • Register
Investorpolis
Advertisement
  • Home
  • Investing Series Guide
    • All
    • I. Goal Based Investing
    • II. Compounding & Inflation
    • III. Assets Risks & Returns
    • IV. Efficient Diversification
    • IX. Sustainable Investing and ESG
    • V. The Investor
    • VI. Assets and Investments
    • VII. Index Funds
    • VIII. Successful Investing
    • XI. Other Topics
    Simple Portfolio Series (DIY) Part 2: The Traditional Portfolio 60/40, what it is, for whom, and its performance

    Simple Portfolio Series (DIY) Part 2: The Traditional Portfolio 60/40, what it is, for whom, and its performance

    Simple or Lazy Portfolio Series (DIY): Part 1 – Overview

    Simple or Lazy Portfolio Series (DIY): Part 1 – Overview

    Choosing Mutual Funds Series: Part 5 – Funds availability and currency of investment

    Choosing Mutual Funds Series: Part 5 – Funds availability and currency of investment

    Maximize time invested in the stock market instead of market timing: Part 2. Impossibilities and losses (cont.)

    Maximize time invested in the stock market instead of market timing: Part 2. Impossibilities and losses (cont.)

    Maximizing time invested in the stock market instead of market timing: Part 1 – Biases and losses

    Maximizing time invested in the stock market instead of market timing: Part 1 – Biases and losses

    ESG Investing Series: Part 9 – Developments and models of corporate governance regulation in the world

    ESG Investing Series: Part 9 – Developments and models of corporate governance regulation in the world

    Trending Tags

      • I. Goal Based Investing
      • II. Compounding & Inflation
      • III. Assets Risks & Returns
      • IV. Efficient Diversification
      • V. The Investor
      • VI. Assets and Investments
      • VIII. Successful Investing
      • IX. Sustainable Investing and ESG
      • X. Kits and Tips
      • XI. Other Topics
    • Wealth and Investing
      • All
      • Investing
      • Wealth
      Financial Markets Outlook 1Q23: Waiting for the turn the tide of inflation, 2023 will be a two-phase investment year

      Financial Markets Outlook 1Q23: Waiting for the turn the tide of inflation, 2023 will be a two-phase investment year

      Outlook Financial Markets 2023: S&P 500 at 4,000 and 10-year U.S. bond interest rates at 3.5%

      Outlook Financial Markets 2023: S&P 500 at 4,000 and 10-year U.S. bond interest rates at 3.5%

      The role and functions of the world’s leading stock exchanges

      The role and functions of the world’s leading stock exchanges

      Current interest rates on U.S. treasuries make investment in these bonds interesting and raise the bar for the attractiveness of stock investment

      Current interest rates on U.S. treasuries make investment in these bonds interesting and raise the bar for the attractiveness of stock investment

      Assess financial market opportunities and risks: P3 – Opportunities and completion

      Assess financial market opportunities and risks: P3 – Opportunities and completion

      Assess financial market opportunities and risks: P2 – Risks (cont.)

      Assess financial market opportunities and risks: P2 – Risks (cont.)

      Trending Tags

        • Investing
        • Wealth
      • Retirement & Savings
        • All
        • Retirement
        • Savings
        Retirement Series: How much money do we need to live through retirement?

        Retirement Series: How much money do we need to live through retirement?

        Retirement Series: Part 1 – Overview – A backwards view

        Retirement Series: Part 1 – Overview – A backwards view

        How many years do our public or social pensions last?

        What is the replacement rate of retirement pensions?

        How many years will we live in retirement?

        Planning for a good financial life in retirement

        Trending Tags

          • Retirement
          • Savings
        • Tools
          • All
          • Calculators
          • Publications
          • Sites and apps
          Morningstar Rating for Funds

          Morningstar Rating for Funds

          Morningstar’s European Active/Passive Barometer

          Morningstar’s European Active/Passive Barometer

          Morningstar’s U.S. Active vs. Passive Barometer

          Morningstar’s U.S. Active vs. Passive Barometer

          The Power of Dividends: Past, Present, and Future, Hartford Funds, 2021

          The Power of Dividends: Past, Present, and Future, Hartford Funds, 2021

          OECD Corporate Governance Factbook 2021

          OECD Corporate Governance Factbook 2021

          G20/OECD Principles of Corporate Governance, 2015

          G20/OECD Principles of Corporate Governance, 2015

          Trending Tags

          • calculators
          • Calculators
          • Publications
          • Sites and apps
        • More
          • All
          • Best of
          Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Dividend Stocks for Investors Outside the U.S.

          Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Dividend Stocks for Investors Outside the U.S.

          Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Dividend Stocks for U.S. Investors

          Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Dividend Stocks for U.S. Investors

          Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Investment Grade Bonds, Indexed, for Eurozone Investors

          Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Investment Grade Bonds, Indexed, for Eurozone Investors

          Best Of Mutual Funds Series: US Bonds, Indexed, for US Investors

          Best Of Mutual Funds Series: US Bonds, Indexed, for US Investors

          Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Passive, US Large Stocks, for Non-US Investors

          Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Passive, US Large Stocks, for Non-US Investors

          Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Passive Large US Stocks for US Investors

          Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Passive Large US Stocks for US Investors

          Trending Tags

            • Best of
            • Reviews
            • Snapshots
            • Others
          No Result
          View All Result
          • Home
          • Investing Series Guide
            • All
            • I. Goal Based Investing
            • II. Compounding & Inflation
            • III. Assets Risks & Returns
            • IV. Efficient Diversification
            • IX. Sustainable Investing and ESG
            • V. The Investor
            • VI. Assets and Investments
            • VII. Index Funds
            • VIII. Successful Investing
            • XI. Other Topics
            Simple Portfolio Series (DIY) Part 2: The Traditional Portfolio 60/40, what it is, for whom, and its performance

            Simple Portfolio Series (DIY) Part 2: The Traditional Portfolio 60/40, what it is, for whom, and its performance

            Simple or Lazy Portfolio Series (DIY): Part 1 – Overview

            Simple or Lazy Portfolio Series (DIY): Part 1 – Overview

            Choosing Mutual Funds Series: Part 5 – Funds availability and currency of investment

            Choosing Mutual Funds Series: Part 5 – Funds availability and currency of investment

            Maximize time invested in the stock market instead of market timing: Part 2. Impossibilities and losses (cont.)

            Maximize time invested in the stock market instead of market timing: Part 2. Impossibilities and losses (cont.)

            Maximizing time invested in the stock market instead of market timing: Part 1 – Biases and losses

            Maximizing time invested in the stock market instead of market timing: Part 1 – Biases and losses

            ESG Investing Series: Part 9 – Developments and models of corporate governance regulation in the world

            ESG Investing Series: Part 9 – Developments and models of corporate governance regulation in the world

            Trending Tags

              • I. Goal Based Investing
              • II. Compounding & Inflation
              • III. Assets Risks & Returns
              • IV. Efficient Diversification
              • V. The Investor
              • VI. Assets and Investments
              • VIII. Successful Investing
              • IX. Sustainable Investing and ESG
              • X. Kits and Tips
              • XI. Other Topics
            • Wealth and Investing
              • All
              • Investing
              • Wealth
              Financial Markets Outlook 1Q23: Waiting for the turn the tide of inflation, 2023 will be a two-phase investment year

              Financial Markets Outlook 1Q23: Waiting for the turn the tide of inflation, 2023 will be a two-phase investment year

              Outlook Financial Markets 2023: S&P 500 at 4,000 and 10-year U.S. bond interest rates at 3.5%

              Outlook Financial Markets 2023: S&P 500 at 4,000 and 10-year U.S. bond interest rates at 3.5%

              The role and functions of the world’s leading stock exchanges

              The role and functions of the world’s leading stock exchanges

              Current interest rates on U.S. treasuries make investment in these bonds interesting and raise the bar for the attractiveness of stock investment

              Current interest rates on U.S. treasuries make investment in these bonds interesting and raise the bar for the attractiveness of stock investment

              Assess financial market opportunities and risks: P3 – Opportunities and completion

              Assess financial market opportunities and risks: P3 – Opportunities and completion

              Assess financial market opportunities and risks: P2 – Risks (cont.)

              Assess financial market opportunities and risks: P2 – Risks (cont.)

              Trending Tags

                • Investing
                • Wealth
              • Retirement & Savings
                • All
                • Retirement
                • Savings
                Retirement Series: How much money do we need to live through retirement?

                Retirement Series: How much money do we need to live through retirement?

                Retirement Series: Part 1 – Overview – A backwards view

                Retirement Series: Part 1 – Overview – A backwards view

                How many years do our public or social pensions last?

                What is the replacement rate of retirement pensions?

                How many years will we live in retirement?

                Planning for a good financial life in retirement

                Trending Tags

                  • Retirement
                  • Savings
                • Tools
                  • All
                  • Calculators
                  • Publications
                  • Sites and apps
                  Morningstar Rating for Funds

                  Morningstar Rating for Funds

                  Morningstar’s European Active/Passive Barometer

                  Morningstar’s European Active/Passive Barometer

                  Morningstar’s U.S. Active vs. Passive Barometer

                  Morningstar’s U.S. Active vs. Passive Barometer

                  The Power of Dividends: Past, Present, and Future, Hartford Funds, 2021

                  The Power of Dividends: Past, Present, and Future, Hartford Funds, 2021

                  OECD Corporate Governance Factbook 2021

                  OECD Corporate Governance Factbook 2021

                  G20/OECD Principles of Corporate Governance, 2015

                  G20/OECD Principles of Corporate Governance, 2015

                  Trending Tags

                  • calculators
                  • Calculators
                  • Publications
                  • Sites and apps
                • More
                  • All
                  • Best of
                  Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Dividend Stocks for Investors Outside the U.S.

                  Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Dividend Stocks for Investors Outside the U.S.

                  Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Dividend Stocks for U.S. Investors

                  Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Dividend Stocks for U.S. Investors

                  Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Investment Grade Bonds, Indexed, for Eurozone Investors

                  Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Investment Grade Bonds, Indexed, for Eurozone Investors

                  Best Of Mutual Funds Series: US Bonds, Indexed, for US Investors

                  Best Of Mutual Funds Series: US Bonds, Indexed, for US Investors

                  Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Passive, US Large Stocks, for Non-US Investors

                  Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Passive, US Large Stocks, for Non-US Investors

                  Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Passive Large US Stocks for US Investors

                  Best Of Mutual Funds Series: Passive Large US Stocks for US Investors

                  Trending Tags

                    • Best of
                    • Reviews
                    • Snapshots
                    • Others
                  No Result
                  View All Result
                  Investorpolis
                  No Result
                  View All Result
                  Home Wealth and Investing Investing

                  Assess financial market opportunities and risks: P2 – Risks (cont.)

                  25 de November, 2022
                  in Investing, Wealth and Investing
                  Reading Time: 8 mins read
                  0 0
                  0
                  Assess financial market opportunities and risks: P2 – Risks (cont.)
                  Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

                  #R6 We have the crises of energy and agricultural products.

                  #R7 Europe’s energy dependency.

                  #R8 We have increased interest rates with countries with high indebtedness.

                  #R9 We still have a covid crisis.

                  #R10 The setbacks of globalization or global fragmentation.

                  #R11 The famine in Africa.

                  #R12 Supply chains, the “yo-yo” of “start-stock” or “reset” and “lockdowns”.

                  #R13 Monetary contraction and stress in less liquid markets such as credit and derivatives.

                  This is the second of three articles on the exercise of building scenarios for assessing the risks and opportunities of financial markets.

                  We have taken the current market situation for reference and example of this financial year, in which investors, shareholders and bondholders are incurring major losses.

                  It is a rich and complex situation of multiple events and acting with intense forces and in opposite directions.

                  In the first article, we addressed the risks of the highest inflation in the last 40 years, its fight against monetary contraction or quantitative tightening, with meaning and effects opposite seer policies over the past 15 years, the consequent sharp losses in investments in stocks and bonds and the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the limits of fiscal policy and the Ukraine war.

                  In this article we will continue to develop the risks.

                  In the third and final part we will address the main opportunities and make a careful balance between risks and opportunities, in order to focus on the determining issues that arise on financial markets.

                  #R6 We have the crises of energy and agricultural products.

                  Inflation is due to increased prices of raw materials, especially energy and agricultural products, and supply chain problems.

                  These increases in raw materials were already coming from behind, but they were compounded by the war.

                  The increase in energy prices brings to our memories the oil crises of 1973 and 1983. The first brought us stout and the second recession.

                  In previous articles, we developed the theme of the impact of oil on the markets.

                  The increase in agricultural prices affects mainly the most disadvantaged classes and the poorest countries.

                  The risks of popular uprisings are greater.

                  #R7 Europe’s energy dependency.

                  In the last 20 years Europe has created a great energy dependency on Russia. 40% of its energy needs are met by Russia.

                  Much of Europe’s oil and gas supply infrastructure is for Russian energy use. Alternatives are not easy.

                  Oil is controlled by OPEC+, which integrates Russia.

                  Gas is even more difficult because most European countries are not prepared for more liquefied gas. It depends on the Russian pipeline.

                  Russia threatens to cut off gas supplies. And winter is at the door.

                  We have also looked at Europe’s energy dependency in Russia in a previous article.

                  #R8 We have increased interest rates with countries with high indebtedness.

                  There are European countries with a high level of indebtedness, such as Italy, Greece and Spain.

                  Less than 10 years ago we had the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone.

                  This has only been surpassed by greater European solidarity and cohesion, and low interest rates. So low they’ve been negative in the last five years.

                  The increase in interest rekindles this theme. There is talk of European fragmentation.

                  We have also seen the enormous instability that the UK has experienced, with the unsustained economic mini-programme of Liz Truss and Kwasi Qwarteng.

                  But it is not only in Europe and in developed countries.

                  There are emerging countries with a serious financial crisis. Sri Lanka has gone bankrupt. Pakistan, Ghana, Tunisia, Egypt, and Argentina are in serious trouble.

                  #R9 We still have the covid crisis.

                  Inflation and war almost made us forget the health crisis. But we still have it.

                  We may be moving to the state of endemic in developed countries, but in developing countries there is still a long way to go.

                  Despite improvements and advances, we never know what the future holds.

                  The risk of more infectious, resistant or more burdensome virus mutations cannot be excluded.

                  Meanwhile, China’s zero-tolerance policy in China causes successive lockdowns, continuing to undermine the regularization of global supply chains.

                  #R10 The setbacks of globalization or global fragmentation.

                  With Donald Trump in the US presidency, a trade war has been unleashed with several countries, notably With China.

                  The change has brought some unwind.

                  However, this occurred in the midst of a pandemic.

                  In addition, the war for technology and cyber nets between the two major world powers, China and the USA, resonated.

                  There is a common ambition and mutual mistrust that manifests itself from 5G technology to computers.

                  The war in Ukraine brings new data.

                  Russia is in the middle of trade with the West. Today is the sanctions, tomorrow will be distrust and the release of energy dependence.

                  It remains to be heard whether the confrontation between China and the US will not increase global fragmentation.

                  #R11 The famine in Africa.

                  Rising prices of agricultural goods and a blockade of Ukrainian exports are adamant of hunger in Africa.

                  Ukraine is one of the largest producers of cereals and sunflower oil in the world.

                  Many African countries import more than 50% of these goods from Ukraine. Blocking prevents this trade. They are poor countries and hunger increases.

                  Not being a direct risk and with strong impact, it is a serious humanitarian problem and can create major geopolitical instability.

                  #R12 Supply chains, the “yo-yo” of “start-stock” or “reset” and “lockdowns”.

                  The problem with supply chains is whether the issue boils down to bottlenecks that the pandemic has left or whether it is more serious and structural than that.

                  The pandemic has brought down activity shutdowns and much economic uncertainty.

                  The disupposition was strong. Factories stopped, tourism (travel, accommodation and catering) fell sharply, there were many redundancies, and retailers reduced orders as a precaution.

                  GDP fell by more than 20% in a single quarter and 5% in a year in many Western countries. The recovery was equally abrupt and strong. Now a possible recession is admitted.

                  Under these conditions, it is difficult to plan and manage orders and inventories well.

                  The supply chains are global. Returning to normality costs. Reactivating companies for full activity takes time.

                  The aggravation is also the lockdowns in China and the world fragmentation, previously mentioned.

                  #R13 Monetary contraction and stress in less liquid markets such as credit and derivatives.

                  Markets are myth sensitive, so the slightest signs of disruption or instability the movements are very violent.

                  Examples of the recent performance of Credit Suisse’s stock and the volatility of very long British treasury bond prices are a good example.

                  The risks are higher in less liquid markets, such as credit and derivatives, which is added to the high leverage that developed during the period when the cost of money was very low.

                  Previous Post

                  Assessing the opportunities and risks of financial markets: P1 – Risks

                  Next Post

                  Assess financial market opportunities and risks: P3 – Opportunities and completion

                  Feria

                  Feria

                  Related Posts

                  Financial Markets Outlook 1Q23: Waiting for the turn the tide of inflation, 2023 will be a two-phase investment year
                  Investing

                  Financial Markets Outlook 1Q23: Waiting for the turn the tide of inflation, 2023 will be a two-phase investment year

                  7 de January, 2023
                  Outlook Financial Markets 2023: S&P 500 at 4,000 and 10-year U.S. bond interest rates at 3.5%
                  Investing

                  Outlook Financial Markets 2023: S&P 500 at 4,000 and 10-year U.S. bond interest rates at 3.5%

                  30 de November, 2022
                  The role and functions of the world’s leading stock exchanges
                  Investing

                  The role and functions of the world’s leading stock exchanges

                  30 de November, 2022
                  Current interest rates on U.S. treasuries make investment in these bonds interesting and raise the bar for the attractiveness of stock investment
                  Investing

                  Current interest rates on U.S. treasuries make investment in these bonds interesting and raise the bar for the attractiveness of stock investment

                  30 de November, 2022
                  Assess financial market opportunities and risks: P3 – Opportunities and completion
                  Investing

                  Assess financial market opportunities and risks: P3 – Opportunities and completion

                  25 de November, 2022
                  Assessing the opportunities and risks of financial markets: P1 – Risks
                  Investing

                  Assessing the opportunities and risks of financial markets: P1 – Risks

                  25 de November, 2022
                  Next Post
                  Assess financial market opportunities and risks: P3 – Opportunities and completion

                  Assess financial market opportunities and risks: P3 - Opportunities and completion

                  Leave a Reply

                  Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

                  Trending

                  Simple Portfolio Series (DIY) Part 2: The Traditional Portfolio 60/40, what it is, for whom, and its performance

                  Simple Portfolio Series (DIY) Part 2: The Traditional Portfolio 60/40, what it is, for whom, and its performance

                  28 de January, 2023
                  Simple or Lazy Portfolio Series (DIY): Part 1 – Overview

                  Simple or Lazy Portfolio Series (DIY): Part 1 – Overview

                  28 de January, 2023
                  Choosing Mutual Funds Series: Part 5 – Funds availability and currency of investment

                  Choosing Mutual Funds Series: Part 5 – Funds availability and currency of investment

                  24 de January, 2023
                  Financial Markets Outlook 1Q23: Waiting for the turn the tide of inflation, 2023 will be a two-phase investment year

                  Financial Markets Outlook 1Q23: Waiting for the turn the tide of inflation, 2023 will be a two-phase investment year

                  7 de January, 2023
                  Investorpolis

                  We developed this blog because we believe that only a small learning effort is needed to make a big change in the decisions and results of our investments and financial assets.

                  Main categories

                  • Investing Series Guide
                  • Wealth and Investing
                  • Retirement & Savings
                  • Tools
                  • More

                  Newsletter

                  Sign to our mailing list to receive updates direct to your inbox!

                  *We don’t spam

                  • Privacy Policy
                  • Cookie Policy
                  • Contacts

                  © 2021 - Investorpolis / Powered by Delta Soluções

                  • pt-pt Português
                  • fr Français
                  • es Español
                  • en English
                  • Home
                  • Investing Series Guide
                    • I. Goal Based Investing
                    • II. Compounding & Inflation
                    • III. Assets Risks & Returns
                    • IV. Efficient Diversification
                    • IX. Sustainable Investing and ESG
                    • V. The Investor
                    • VI. Assets and Investments
                    • VII. Index Funds
                    • VIII. Successful Investing
                    • X. Kits and Tips
                    • XI. Other Topics
                  • Retirement & Savings
                    • Retirement
                    • Savings
                  • Wealth and Investing
                    • Investing
                    • Wealth
                  • Tools
                    • Calculators
                    • Publications
                    • Sites and apps
                  • More
                    • Best of
                    • Reviews
                    • Snapshots
                    • Others
                  • About us
                    • Who we are
                    • Mission
                  • Login
                  • Sign Up
                  • Cart

                  © 2021 - Investorpolis / Powered by Delta Soluções

                  Welcome Back!

                  Login to your account below

                  Forgotten Password? Sign Up

                  Create New Account!

                  Fill the forms bellow to register

                  All fields are required. Log In

                  Retrieve your password

                  Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

                  Log In
                  We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept All”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies. However, you may visit "Cookie Settings" to provide a controlled consent.
                  Cookie configurationCookie PolicyAcceptReject
                  Manage consent

                  Privacy Overview

                  This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
                  Advertisement
                  Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
                  Analytics
                  Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
                  Functional
                  Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
                  Necessary
                  Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
                  Others
                  Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet.
                  Performance
                  Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
                  SAVE & ACCEPT

                  Add New Playlist

                  Are you sure want to unlock this post?
                  Unlock left : 0
                  Are you sure want to cancel subscription?